I’m going to pass on handicapping this year’s Saudi Cup. I’m not that thrilled to see Midnight Bourbon-Mandaloun VII, even with this being the latter’s debut as the “2021 Kentucky Derby Champion.”
Saturday 2/26/22
Aqueduct Race 3. Going for the first time under the Steve Asmussen barn, 2 A Longlongtimeago gets some class relief here. Trevor McCarthy gets the mount and should have this horse in the right spot. He’s off a long layoff–nine months–but has been working well over at Belmont. This horse broke its maiden with a deep closing bid and should have some speed to run into here as well… BUT…There’s also the chance that Asmussen has worked to have him more forwardly placed as he’s done with Max Player to big-time results. Worth every bit of the 6-1 morning line. Bet across the board. Add a double with the 6 Kay Tee Gal in race 4 if you’re so inclined.
Aqueduct Race 4. It’s not often that a Todd Pletcher trainee sits as third choice on the morning line, but here we are. Filly 6 Kay Tee Gal out of Palace Malice makes her second career start here. Kendrick Carmouche gets the mount and, while he’s not my favorite, he’s as good as any in the race. I’m tossing her first start as she was bumped out of the break on her way to finishing seventh in a field of eight. She’s stretching out, which should suit her just fine. I think the morning line of 9-2 will hold here. Bet to win and a straight exacta 6/1,2,3.
Aqueduct Race 5. Six of the nine in this Maiden Special Weight field are first time starters, but I’m looking at a horse who is coming back after finishing 2nd its first time out. The 5 Jester’s Song ran well at 15-1 but was beaten soundly by 4-1/4 lengths. This 3-year-old gelding out of Maclean’s Music is 7-2 on the morning line, but I think that will float up a bit. I’m not interested in anything lower than the morning line. Bet across the board and an exacta box with the Pletcher entries 2,5,9.
Oaklawn Park Race 11. I won’t argue against Newgrange to be the likeliest winner of this year’s Rebel Stakes for trainer Bob Baffert and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. But the price is going to be short, so I’ll look at a couple of other options to get involved with in the wagering. My top pick is 7 Ben Diesel from the Dallas Stewart barn. This horse finished third in the Southwest last month. A mid-pack runner with late speed might just get the right setup to pull off an upset. 9 Barber Road, a gray out of Race Day, finished second in the Southwest and is 9-2 on the morning line. Has also shown late speed. Could jockey Reylu Gutierrez give us one of his patented “Reylu Rallies” on Saturday? Now, how about a couple of longshot plays? The 10 Ethereal Road comes in having broken his maiden last month at 19-1 odds. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas knows how to pick his spots, but this is a big class jump. Another that will rely on some speed to run into to get up for the win. The pace up front should be the 1 Kavod. I expect him to press Newgrange from the break. He led the field around in the Southwest only to falter down the stretch.
Sunday 2/27/22
Gulfstream Park Race 1. The 1 Astral Weeks gets a big class drop here and takes blinkers off. Should be forwardly placed and expecting an attractive price with the 8-1 morning line.
Oaklawn Park Race 5. Well, what do we have here? 10 Loch Garman, a Robertino Diodoro first time claimer that’s also adding blinkers for the first time? At 20-1 on the morning line?! There’s not a snowball’s chance that doesn’t get pounded down into the 3-1 range. This 5-year-old gelding out of Bodemeister is the class of this field. The plan for Sunday: wake up, load Loch Garman bet, print money.