Risen Star Day
The key to picking a winner at Fair Grounds is watching the undercards carefully. Track bias can change on a day-to-day basis, but in general, you should be mindful if frontrunners are going gate-to-wire, or if there have been opportunities for those horses who like to make a late charge.
For the Risen Star, here are both a frontrunner and a mid-pack type that I like:
5 Epicenter ML 4-1 Should be forwardly placed under Joel Rosario for trainer Steve Asmussen. Record of 4-2-1-0 lifetime. Beaten last month in the Lecomte going 8.5 furlongs. With this loaded field, I expect him to go off close to the morning line, and even float up slightly. Top choice.
7 Zandon ML 9-2 If a closer is what you are looking for, you could do worse than taking Zandon out of the Chad Brown barn. With a record of 2-1-1-0, this is a horse that likes to win. A nice bullet work on the 12th to boot. Jose Ortiz gets in the irons. What’s not to like?
With a lot of money sure to back Smile Happy, there is excellent value in this race if you like a different horse to take down the likely post-time favorite.
Rachel Alexandra
Race 12 is for 3-year-old fillies and is a proven test that produces an insane amount of Kentucky Oaks winners. 11 Hidden Connection figures to be the post-time favorite, and a worthy one at that. If you get 3-1 or better, I can’t knock you for going in that direction. However, I’m looking at a different horse in this spot:
1 La Crete ML 8-1 I’m going right back to Asmussen/Rosario here. This filly is 2-for-2 lifetime and, although this represents a jump in class, the breeding would suggest she can handle it.
This should be an enjoyable day of racing down in Louisiana!
Other Highlighted Horses for Saturday
Fair Grounds Race 3. Looking for value in Saturday’s undercard here as first-time starter 4 Catnip goes for trainer Michael Stidham on the turf. With money likely to back other horses, we figure to get every bit of the 8-1 morning line odds, and possible double digits.
Fair Grounds Race 7. Trainer Chris Hartman is on fire at the meet. In this 5.5 furlong turf sprint he’s entered 4 Gray Attempt, a winner here just last month. A mid-pack runner with a closing kick should get a good ride from a jockey/trainer combo that hits at 27%.
Fair Grounds Race 11. The 3 Santin’s morning line of 12-1 does not seem right. While it’s true that entries from Chad Brown, Steve Asmussen, and Michael Maker are likely to take more betting capital, this 4-year-old colt is my top choice in this 9 furlong turf stakes race. First start of 2022 and has been working–and well at that. Fingers crossed he goes off at 4-1 or higher.
Oaklawn Park Race 2. 2 Praetorian gets slight class relief here and should be an attractive price in this claiming race. 1,2,11 exacta box here for those so inclined.
Santa Anita Race 9. Top choice in this non-graded stakes race going 8 furlongs on the turf is 6 Sumter. Won last time out as the post-time favorite at Del Mar with some nice works since. Making his 2022 debut and Flavien Prat stays aboard. Playable at the 3-1 morning line, and even as low as 2-1 for me.