Word from my Saratoga connections is that today’s card is the most competitive of the meet thus far. That made me laugh. Did you even see the last three races yesterday, bro? It’s been tough as nails at the Spa this year. Anyhow, away we go…
Racing starts at 1:05 EST.
Race 1 What a race to open the card! The 5 Ministerial was not good in his debut race… on turf. Now he goes on dirt, a surface which should be more to his liking, and gets a jockey upgrade to John Velazquez. The 1 Strong Light figures to settle in at the back of the pack before making a closing bid. This gray off the Churchill Downs circuit gets crafty rider Trevor McCarthy.
Picks: 5-1-3-4
Race 2 This race is being run on the inner turf, so I am going to hunt horses that have shown late kick. The 8 Lady Firefoot was a little green on debut but had enough late to get up for fourth in a 5.5 furlong race. She should benefit from stretching out, and Javier Castellano stays in the mount, so I have to believe the connections have some expectations here. The morning line favorite, 1 Beachfront Bid, has finished second four times in six lifetime races. She projects to be towards the back of the pack early, and I’m not convinced there will be enough speed in the race for her to make up all the ground needed. Yesterday in the eighth race, Irad rode quizzically on a Chad Brown entry. He’s going to have to save some major ground to make this one happen today. The 7 Gather the Facts wisely removes blinkers, as she was awful last time out with them on. The 2 Birthday Time is fresh off a claim with a move to the Joe Sharp barn, having just missed last time out.
Picks: 8-1-7-2
Race 3 Early in the meet, horses coming up from Churchill Downs were successful. The 2 Alejandro won last time out for trainer Steve Asmussen, and he plucks Castellano for the ride. Underneath, I’m most interested in the 3 Shooger Ray Too, who cuts back from 14 furlongs, and the 6 Bourbon Calling, also out of the Kentucky circuit.
Picks: 2-3-6-5
Race 4 8.5 furlongs on the Mellon Turf for 3-year-olds and up. Chad Brown’s coupled entry looks tough in this spot. I don’t know if I’ve got the stones to try and beat him here.
Picks: 1/1A-2-4-5
Race 5 The 1 Nicholas James has all the early speed in this race but has faded down the stretch against similar company. The 7 Eminency has finished second in four of eight lifetime races; Luis Saez rode him to his lone victory last month at Belmont and stays in the saddle today.
Picks: 7-6-8-1
Race 6 The 9 Provision just missed earlier this month on the same course and wheels back two weeks later for trainer George Weaver. The pace scenario is in his favor here and Saez retains the mount. Barn mate 6 Let’s Go Big Blue has been working nicely leading up to his debut and may just try and spoil Provision’s party. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez pivots from Irad to Flavien Prat on 10 Barry the Builder and I’m sure has his thoughts on getting a different style ride today.
Picks: 9-2-6-10
Race 7 The 1 Freedom Speaks, a gray off the Florida circuit, gets Lasix again today, having just missed last time out off Lasix. The 3 Neon Summer has finished second in both lifetime starts with blinkers on. They go back on today. Fact is, most of these horses have won against far lesser competition.
Picks: 1-3-5-6
Race 8 This morning I was driving into the office and Dan Fogelberg’s “Leader of the Band” came on the radio. It must be a sign, right? This looks like it’ll be a fun one.
Picks: 4-7-1-5
Race 9 Here we go again on the inner turf. Rudy Rodriguez has two new claimers entered here in the 4 Vintage Girl and the 6 Diva Ready. He must like what he sees with Vintage Girl, as he puts Luis Saez in the irons. If she can sit closer to the pace, her late charge might be enough in this spot. Irad Ortiz, Jr. took 3 Hatari to the winner’s circle last time out, and a similar effort may get it done today as well. There are reasons to like the 7 Mirth 'n Merriment, but I think there will be enough pressing pace runners here to soften her up for the stretch run. Underneath only.
Picks: 4-3-7-6
Race 10 There are a pair of price horses that are stepping up in class here, but if they make a move forward, I think they can take it. The 5 Private Creed won on debut last month at Ellis Park on the same surface and distance, clearing by 1.25 lengths. The 6 Noble Huntsman showed a nice late turn of foot last month, winning his debut on this same track.
Picks: 5-6-3-8
Best of luck!