Welcome to week 5 at the Spa. Now’s a wonderful time to take a closer look at some jockey and trainer stats to better inform our handicapping.
Top Jockeys
•Irad Ortiz, Jr. 149-30-24-27 Win 20% / In the money 54%
•Luis Saez 130-24-19-21 Win 18% / In the money 49%
•Joel Rosario 100-21-17-8 Win 21% / In the money 46%
•Flavien Prat 88-15-18-10 Win 17% / In the money 49%
•Javier Castellano 64-15-6-5 Win 23% / In the money 41%
Top Trainers
•Chad Brown 90-21-16-13 Win 23% / In the money 56%
•Todd Pletcher 75-15-10-8 Win 20% / In the money 44%
•Mike Maker 59-11-7-13 Win 19% / In the money 53%
•Christophe Clement 50-9-8-10 Win 18% / In the money 54%
•Bill Mott 53-8-10-6 Win 15% / In the money 45%
You can get the entirety of the Saratoga meet’s statistics here.
Today’s big race is number eight on the card, the non-graded Tale of the Cat Stakes. Race 1 kicks off at 1:05 EST.
Race 1 Steeplechase Allowance NW2 4YO+ Not the best record of accomplishment picking these hurdle races. I’m going to go with the 1 Take Profit on the jockey switch to Graham Watters. I’ve got to include one of these Kelly Brion entries underneath. Leaning towards the 5 Baltimore Kid, who is 1-for-2 lifetime.
Picks: 1-5-3-6
Race 2 $20K Maiden Claiming 3YO+ OMG no thank you. I want no part in betting this race. Every single horse is making a minor change except for one, the 3 Offutt Cole. So, he goes on top for me.
Picks: 3-5-1-6
Race 3 MSW NY-Bred 2YO The 3 General Banker just missed in his debut going the same distance; there’s certainly no reason to doubt another solid effort is in store today.
Picks: 3-9-8-4
Race 4 $62.5K AOC 3YO+ Orlando Noda tabs Irad Ortiz, Jr. to hop on the 1 Montauk Daddy. The only question is whether he can get the lead over the other early speed in the race from the 3 Mexican Wonder Boy. A duel between those two could soften them up just enough for the 2 Higher Standard or the 4 Prime Factor to pounce down the stretch. Should be a fun one!
Picks: 1-2-4-3
Race 5 $35K Claiming NW2 3YO+ Very tempting to take the 4 Be the Boss with Castellano in the mount as lone speed in this race. The only hesitation is that the inner turf course has tended to favor late speed during the meet. The other big contender here is the 9 Inflation Adjusted for Chad Brown’s barn.
Picks: 4-9-2-10
Race 6 MSW NY-Bred 2YO Fillies Leaning heavily towards the 13 August Bloom making her debut here. Out of Arrogate, she gets a top rider in Luis Saez. Did I mention she’s also a gray?
Picks: 13-1-8-7
Race 7 $50K Starter Allowance NW1 3YO+ The 1 Vocalize switches to Linda Rice’s barn and should be fresh today. The 9 Montathan gets blinkers for the first time today.
Picks: 1-6-5-9
Race 8 Tale of the Cat Stakes (Non-graded) 4YO+ A loss for the 2 Awesome Gerry time out going 8 furlongs, but he cuts back today to a distance that he’s 6-2-2-0 lifetime. The 5 Mr. Phil is 4-2-2-0 lifetime going 7 furlongs on the dirt.
Picks: 2-5-1-3
Race 9 Allowance NW1 NY-Bred 3YO+ The 11 Timbuktu has finished in the money in all three lifetime starts and is the class of this field. I am interested in the 6 Battle Scars underneath, first off a layoff for trainer Rob Atras. The 9 Breadman is 1-for-1 at the distance/surface and gets John Velazquez in the irons.
Picks: 11-9-6-8
Race 10 MSW 3YO+ The 8 Most Wanted Man has finished a game third in two lifetime races. I should benefit from stretching out and getting Irad today. Conversely, the 3 Remote has failed his last two as post time favorite. Now cuts back. Needs to avoid trouble today as he’s had issues in all lifetime races. The other Chad entry, 7 Running Bee, should get a perfect trip under Manny Franco. If he can save ground, he may just get the right trip to take it, having missed in his first two goes at it.
Picks: 8-7-3-9
Best of luck!