Back at it capping the Spa. Let’s get to some winners. Today’s race analysis was done pre-scratches.
Race 1 Allowance NW2 4YO+ 1:05 EST Steeplechase race going 16.5 furlongs. 4 Grey Giant has a hot rider in Teddy Davies. Jockey/trainer combo hits 33% of the time, tops in this field.
Picks: 4-1-8-6
Race 2 $14K Claiming NW3 Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 1:39 EST Interested in the 3 Bastet here. Pedigree fits, and nice work tab in the lead up to this spot. 1 Knot Anymore is the morning line favorite and looks tough to beat. 1,6 exacta box for the win.
Picks: 3-1-4-6
Race 3 MSW 2YO 2:13 EST The 2 Disarmed out of Maclean’s Music will likely get all the attention here for Christophe Clement. The trainer has a second entry in 6 Weyhill Farm Rd. and adds blinkers today. Best to not overthink this one.
Picks: 2-6-1-5
Race 4 Honorable Miss Handicap (G2) Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 2:49 EST Field of only four here. 1 Frank’s Rockette has been runner-up in her last three and hasn’t won since July 2021. 2 Bella Sofia has finished out of the money only once, and that was to complete the super last November at the Breeders’ Cup. 3 Kimari won her 2022 debut in March–a $62.5K AOC–but has failed in two Grade 1s since. That leaves us with the 4 Amadevil, whose career record is 8-7-1-0 and sits at 12-1 on the morning line. The knocks on her are that she’ll be stepping up quite a bit class-wise here and she’ll be running without Lasix for the first time. I’ll bet her across if I can get 9-1 or better, which may not happen given the field size.
Picks: 2-1-3-4
Race 5 Allowance NW1 3YO+ 3:21 EST A 12 furlong marathon on the turf. 1 Neotropic’s pedigree fits here and Jose Ortiz hops aboard, which I like. Will have to contend with Chad Brown’s 2 Forwardly which we can guess will go off as the post time favorite and does look to be formidable. Trainer Mike Maker has two entries; the one I’m most interested in is the 3 Jarreau. The most seasoned of the group, he’s hit the board in eleven of eighteen career starts.
Picks: 1-2-3-6
Race 6 MSW 2YO Fillies 3:55 EST All but three entries are first timers going 6 furlongs on the dirt; a fun race to dig into. The horse that I’m most excited to see race is 8 August Bloom, a gray out of Arrogate training in Joe Sharp’s barn in Lexington. Works have been good, and I wouldn’t mind getting that 20-1 morning line. The 6 Disruption for Chad Brown looks like she should love the dirt and distance. 12 Little Linzee posted a nice bullet work on the 18th. A great betting race to blow up exotics!
Picks: 8-6-1-12
Race 7 $40K Claiming 3YO Fillies 4:29 EST I’ll go with 4 Fish Mooney here for Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione. Betting it at 4-1 or better. I am also interested in the 2 Spooky Road.
Picks: 4-2-5-1
Race 8 $16K Claiming NW2 Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 5:05 EST Average field where we can price hunt. Morning line favorite 8 O'Gotten Girl is going second off the bench, and although she’s dropping in class, her form is not worth even money. Viable options to beat the favorite include the 1 Saratoga Commando, the 5 Preposterous, the 7 Anotherworldinside, and the 9 Unlock.
Picks: 9-8-1-7
Race 9 $80K AOC NW3 Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 5:39 EST The 4 Amalfi Princess should get a nice trip under Luis Saez here and could pounce down the stretch. The 2 Wholebodemeister ran four days ago at Monmouth, finishing DFL in the Grade 3 Matchmaker. What am I missing here? The 9 WW Fitzy sits as the morning line favorite and has never run on the grass in 31 career starts. The 1 High Opinion may be your post time favorite with Flavien Prat in the irons. The one to beat.
Picks: 1-4-7-2
Race 10 MSW Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 6:13 EST Pace scenario could set up nicely for the 11 Aquila Moon to make her stretch run. She was game upon debut at Churchill Downs but faltered late. A jockey switch for trainer Dallas Stewart, adding blinkers and first time Lasix.
Picks: 11-8-3-2
Best of luck!