A great weekend of racing starts today with Saratoga, of course, as well as opening day at Del Mar. Tomorrow, we have a great slate of graded stakes at Monmouth Park, including a competitive Haskell field.
Today’s race analysis updated post-scratches.
Race 1 MSW 2YO 1:05 EST The 2 Wico switches Ortiz brothers for his seocnd career start. 4 Alexis Zorba has finished second in both his career starts, and that’s exactly where I have him again today. I doubt 5 Dataman will go off at double-digit odds for Graham Motion and Joel Rosario, as pedigree says the surface and distance should be a fine fit.
Picks: 2-4-5-3
Race 2 MSW 3YO+ 1:39 EST INNER TURF This looks extremely chalky with the 1/1A entry, especially 1A Growth Capital. No need to get cute here.
Picks: 1A-6-3-2
Race 3 $32K Claiming 3YO+ 2:15 EST All of morning line favorite 5 Amount’s wins have come against lesser fields than what he’ll face today. For that reason, he’s a play against for me. I’m looking at the 7 American Rule posted a nice work July 11 and Jose Ortiz is back up for trainer Orlando Noda. Include the 2 Hammerin Aamer underneath in your exotics.
Picks: 7-2-5-1
Race 4 $75 Maiden Claiming Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 2:49 EST It looks to me–on paper at least–that trainer Linda Rice will get to dictate the pace scenario here with her two entries. She’s probably hoping the 4 Whiskey Lullaby can get loose on the front end, slow things down, and wire the field. Should set up nicely for the 3 Miss Bonnie T and 7 I’m Glad, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either takes it. I’m looking at a price horse in the 2 Rhombique that will have to come from a little further out of it, but if we get someone to press the front, an upset could be in the making.
Picks: 2-3-7-4
Race 5 $35K Claiming NW3 3YO+ 3:21 EST The 9 Sonic Speed is 2-for-2 lifetime going 8 furlongs on grass. Jockey Manny Franco comes off both the 7 and 11 to ride. The 2 Barnegat Light should be able to get his preferred trip, rating right off the pace, and putting his run in down the stretch. Let’s beat the favorites at a big price.
Picks: 2-9-1-8
Race 6 NY-Bred $25K Maiden Claiming 3YO+ 3:55 EST Not a race I’m looking to get involved in. Every single one of these horses are dropping in class today to try and get a win. 4 Slow Decision goes first time on dirt and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons.
Picks: 4-1-3-7
Race 7 Allowance NW1 3YO+ 4:29 EST 1 Keepmeinmind drops in for the first start of his 4-year-old campaign. The 2 Prince of Pharoahs scratched and it now looks like this is Keepmeinmind’s race to lose. If you like a horse from off the pace, you could do worse than 4 Naval Aviator, winner of his last two, who should take nicely to the added distance today.
Picks: 1-4-8-7
Race 8 NY-Bred $45K AOC NW2 Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 5:05 EST 1 Makin My Move wants to get out front and wire the field. She may be able to do that, and the distance certainly helps. But she will be pressed plenty. 2 Get the Candy goes for the first time for trainer Mike Maker. Luis Saez gets back in the saddle, having ridden on a previous win in her career.
Picks: 1-2-3-5
Race 9 Lake George Stakes (G3) 3YO Fillies 5:39 EST I’ve been pimping the horses that have come to Saratoga by way of Churchill Downs, and we have two entered in this strong field. 3 Al Qahira won last time out and steps up in class today in a big way. 5 Dolce Zel fits the bill, but Irad will have to get her moving from way back to contend. 4 Koala Princess was last seen back at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in November, where she finished 7th. Give me the 8 Skims on top out of trainer Claude McGaughey III’s barn. Lifetime record of 5-2-0-2. She should get first run at the pacesetters.
Picks: 8-5-4-3
Race 10 NY-Bred Allowance NW1 Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 6:13 EST 2 Queen Arella is 3-for-4 going 6 furlongs on dirt. Why not make it 4-for-5? She’s also a winner of five straight, including her 2022 debut, and looks very tough here; curious that the morning line is 8-1. I suppose the money will be with the likes of the 8 Let Her Inspire U for Todd Pletcher and 10 Ready A.P. for Christophe Clement. The 7 Leeloo gets some class relief in an attempt to return to the winner’s circle.
Picks: 2-10-8-7
Best of luck!