Race 1 A.P. Smithwick Memorial Steeplechase (G1) 4YO+ 1:05 EST Not gonna lie, hurdles is not exactly my forte. I bet two of these races last year, picking the winner in one. The horse I had in the other was out front over the last jump and promptly finished last. I will say that, based on the paper, I would be against morning line favorite 3 Pistol Whipped, who hasn’t won in 15 months. I’d rather go with the other Leslie Young-trainee, 6 Redicean, a winner last time out going 17 furlongs. Trainer Kelly Brion has a trio of entries with 4 Historic Heart, 5 French Light, and 7 Iranistan. Jockey Parker Hendriks jumps off the 4 to ride the 7, so I’ll make that my top choice. The Brion/Hendriks combo strikes at a 25% rate.
Picks: 7-6-4-5
I wrote “Big day for Saez?” at the bottom of my notes for today’s card. His mounts kept popping up repeatedly in my analysis. Take that as you will…
Race 2 $25K Claiming Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 1:39 EST 1 Evoking hasn’t raced since winning on debut May 29, 2021. Single published work on July 11, 2021, after that and then nothing until May of this year. Seems odd for the connections to put her in a claimer, too, and Luis Saez chooses to take a mount on another horse in the field. (He is off the 1 AND the 2.) He’ll ride morning line favorite 4 Mariah’s Fortune looks to be the top of this bunch, and I’m not going to overthink it, putting her on top. I’ve got 2 U Can’t Handle This underneath, a winner last time out, along with 6 Babyitsgoldoutside to blow up the trifecta.
Picks: 4-2-6-1
Race 3 NY-Bred Maiden Claiming Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 2:13 EST Below average field going 5.5 furlongs on the Mellon Turf course. 6 Seems to Whisper is a first time starter but based on breeding alone I don’t see her as a threat and am tossing. Irad is on the 7 Izeamalibumoon who finished third in her debut as a post time favorite last month at Monmouth. 5 Aunt Virginia finished second by a quarter length her first time out at 40-1 odds. This marks the seventh try for 8 Gracefully Wild, losing her last two by less than a length. I’m going to give H. James Bond another shot, too, as Saez is listed on 1/1A entry.
Picks: 5-8-1-7
Race 4 NY-Bred $45K AOC NW2 Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 2:49 EST Top choice in this mile race on the inner turf is the 4 Home for Christmas. A winner last time out, and the Clement/Rosario combo hits at 24%. This one looks chalky to me.
Picks: 4-1-3-5
Follow or fade in race 5, I don’t care; this is a great betting race. I think it can blow up in the exotics and horizontals.
Race 5 MSW 2YO Fillies 3:21 EST This looks to be a competitive race with five first time starters in a field of nine. I know it’s a small sample size of just three races, but the Philip Serpe/Irad Ortiz, Jr. combo has won two. For that reason, I have the 5 Leave No Trace on top. I’ll put another first timer to place, 1 Callie’s Passion. Trainer Joe Sharp has Tyler Gaffalione up. Nice bullet work July 11. 1,5 exacta box to get paid! 1,5/1,5/ALL tri will cost us $7. I would probably press the 4 Whatchamacall, 6 Shaymyname, and 2 U Glow Girl in the show spot.
Picks: 5-1-4-2
Race 6 $40K Claiming 4YO+ 3:55 EST I will play against the morning line favorite 6 Happy Farm in this spot. He won his last out but failed the previous three as the post time favorite. The 3 Shadow Matter is 4-2-1-0 lifetime going 6 furlongs on the dirt. Dallas Stewart and… hmm… Luis Saez in the irons.
Picks: 3-5-2-6
Race 7 MSW Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 4:29 EST 3 Hey There is 3-0-2-0 lifetime but could get the deed done here for Brad Cox and Flavien Prat. 4 Bali Dove has failed twice as the post time favorite in both career starts for Wesley Ward but gets a big-time jock upgrade as John Velazquez gets in the irons. 2 Crowding Out is sure to be an underlay, a Chad Brown on turf with Irad in the saddle. Tough ask for this filly not having raced in ten months. I’ll play against.
Picks: 3-4-10-6
Race 8 $62.5K AOC NW2 Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 5:05 EST When 1 Short Summer Dress takes money, she wins. (Watch the tote!) She’s also on a win-every-other-race pattern, and last time out was at Churchill Downs. Horses coming out of Louisville did well last weekend at the Spa. 5 Honey Money cuts back to her preferred distance and Irad hops back on. He won with her two back. 9 Mischievous Diane is 4-2-2-0 lifetime and is eligible for a move forward second off the bench. 4 Secret Love’s 2022 form has been exceptional since March. Has Johnny V. in the driver’s seat, so I expect a good trip.
Picks: 9-1-5-4
Free DRF Formulator PPs available for race 9 here.
Race 9 Suzie O’Cain Stakes (Non-graded) 3YO Fillies 5:39 EST I’ve dialed in on the 1 Solib in this spot out of the Joe Sharp barn. Saez aboard what looks to be the lone speed horse. He’s just the guy I want on a horse that could wire the field. Will have to hold off a closing bid from 5 She’s a Mia, Clement/Rosario, finished second her last three starts. I’ll also include the 7 Galaxina, Bond/McCarthy, who’s faced the toughest competition and might be dropped into just the right spot here.
Picks: 1-5-7-8
My favorite play of the day is a late double, race 9, 1/3, both Saez mounts.
Race 10 $40K Maiden Claiming 3YO+ 6:13 EST 3 Super Quality should get the job done here. A bred turf sprinter that should be forwardly placed in this bunch, another possible gate-to-wire winner for Saez. Main threats will come from the 4 Rugged Union early and the 2 Rum ‘n Tonic late. 9 Jurkovec drops in out of MSW company and could hit the board at a price. The same goes for 1A Pistol Or Shotgun.
Picks: 3-2-1A-9
Best of luck today!