Today’s highlights are races eight and nine, the Coronation Cup and the Forbidden Apple. (Races 1-7 analysis done pre-scratches.)
Race 1 MSW 2YO Fillies 1:05 EST Field of seven going 5.5 furlongs. Five are first timers. My top pick is going to be the morning line favorite, 5 Im Just Kiddin out of Justify. The trainer/jockey combo of John Kimmel and Jose Ortiz strike at a 17% rate. No one else in this field really stands out; a very average bunch. I’ll bet the 5 across and nothing else.
Picks: 5-6-1-4
Race 2 $32K Claiming Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 1:39EST It does not look like there is a lot of speed lined up in this one. Give me the 5 Grudge to get out in front and take the field gate-to-wire. Going to try and beat what looks like will be an over-bet heavy favorite in the 1 Remain Anonymous, going for Brad Cox for the first time after the barn switch. He puts Irad in the irons. The 3 Invaluable has finished in the money in four of her six starts in 2022 for trainer Robertino Diodoro.
Picks: 5-1-3-6
Race 3 MSW 3YO+ 2:15 EST I’ve been waiting for trainer H. James Bond’s debut on the race sheet, and it’s here with the 4 Biondi. The Saratoga meet is especially important to Bond and his connections. He keeps Luis Saez on the mount and I expect a big performance today. Underneath I’m looking at the 6 Uragano going second time on the grass for trainer Kelly Breen, the 5 Mr. Connecticut getting a jockey upgrade to Joel Rosario, and the newly gelded 1 Your Mission out of Todd Pletcher’s barn.
Picks: 4-6-5-1
Race 4 $20K Maiden Claiming 3YO+ 2:49 EST Another race that very well could go gate to wire. The 1 Actualize looks to be lone speed here. The only other interesting colt in here for me is the 6 Just Like This. Brad Cox goes on the dirt for the first time (he finished fourth in his debut on turf), and this could be an opportunity for a big performance.
Picks: 1-6-4-2
Race 5 $35K Claiming NW2 3YO+ 3:21 EST I’m going to back the Maker/Saez combo in this field of thirteen with the 5 Juulstone out of American Pharoah. A long shot that I like underneath is the 3 Assiduously. Hasn’t performed well on race days, but I like the works and will use in the third and fourth spots in the super to blow up the payout. Jockey Julien Leparoux rides today. Maybe he has the magic sauce to get this horse going late.
Picks: 5-10-2-3
Race 6 $45K AOC NW2 3YO+ 3:55 EST Very hard not to like the morning line favorite 9 Grape Nuts Warrior for Brown/Irad in this spot. Although there doesn’t appear to be much speed in here again, and I could see this being the right spot for trainer Gary Sciacca’s 2 Bar Fourteen. Then there’s the 7 Ruse who has finished second in his last three outings. And I’d be remiss not to include the 4 Danzigwiththestars to hit the board here.
Picks: 9-7-4-2
Race 7 $25K Claiming NW3 3YO+ 4:29 EST How about an Ortiz brothers exacta? 3 Six Percent with 4 American Pure, box, print, and move on to the next. I think the 5 Will E Sutton and the 9 Roman Empire have some merit underneath as well. Throw in the 1 Corkman in your tris or supers-he has finished in the top four his last six outings.
Picks: 4-3-9-1
Race 8 Coronation Cup Stakes 3YO Fillies 5:05 EST All the 7 Static Fire has done is win both her career starts, one on turf and one on dirt. A win here could put her on the path to the Breeders’ Cup weekend. Julien Leparoux stays aboard for the second straight race which I like. I’m putting her on top. I could make a case for the rest of the field underneath, so to complete the exacta I’ll go with the also undefeated 11 Empress Tigress ridden by John Velazquez today.
Picks: 7-11-6-8
Race 9 Forbidden Apple Stakes 4YO+ 5:39 EST Oh darn, Art Collector scratched. I was so looking forward to beating him. Let’s beat Chad Brown in this spot then, shall we? I’ll take Brad Cox and the 1 Set Piece on top, followed by the 8 Atone and the 3 Mira Mission to finish ahead of Irad on the 7 Public Sector in that order. A great betting race, whomever you like.
Picks: 1-8-3-7
Race 10 $45K AOC NW2 Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 6:13 EST The 7 Thinking It Over was a winner last time out for trainer Raymond Handal and I like her again today. Rosario stays in the irons. Underneath the 1 Pretty Clever, who’s finished third in her last two starts, the 9 Shesawildjoker out of the David Donk barn, and the 2 Rossa Veloce, who gets a jockey upgrade in Flavien Prat.
Picks: 7-1-9-2
Best of luck!