Here are my thoughts on the late pick 5 sequence today at Thistledown. This analysis was done pre-scratches.
Race 7 Starter Allowance 3YO+ 2:48 EST A surprisingly difficult race to begin the sequence. There is quite a bit of speed lined up in this race with the 1, 3, 6, and 8 frontrunning types. My top choice will be the 5 Kadri, who will look to sit off the speed and make a move down the stretch. Sonny Leon climbs aboard. Where have I heard that name before? If all the speed stays in the race, I’ll look to get the 2 Mighty Angel and the 7 Lazarus Project involved. Both have late kick and should be a price. I can’t stress this enough: the pace scenario could change drastically if some of the speed scratches. If only one of those horses listed above is in the race, he could run away with it gate to wire!
Race 8 Daniel Stearns Cleveland Gold Cup Stakes 3YO 3:18 EST Not a whole lot separates my top three choices in this race, so I am going with the 6 Tantrum as my top pick. Irad Ortiz, Jr. comes to town and goes for the Timothy Hamm barn. Also in play for me are the 2 Rumble Strip Ron and the 7 Country Club Bobby. (Those names sound plucked straight from a Will Ferrell movie, don’t they? Ha.) Again, there is not a whole lot of separation between these, so I’ll play them equally.
Race 9 George Lewis Memorial Stakes 3YO+ 3:57 EST A field of thirteen line up in the 2022 version of the George Lewis. The 4 First Song, again with Hamm/Irad, looks to be the lone speed in the race. I’m going single ‘A’ here. The 8, 10, 12, and 13 are all interesting as well, but strictly ‘B’ horses for me.
Race 10 Lady Jaqueline Stakes Fillies & Mares 3YO+ 4:48 EST A top-heavy field of ladies set to duel nine furlongs on the dirt. The question we must ask ourselves: is the 6 Army Wife ready to fire second off the bench? If so, she’ll be a tough one to beat. Well, half of this ten-horse field are grays, so you know I’ll be looking at a couple of those to beat her with. The 1 She’s Pure Silver stretches out and jumps up in class; she and the 10 Maliced will likely duel on the front end but have little chance of winning. The 5 Crazy Beautiful’s most recent win for Kenny McPeek was at Turfway Park on synthetic where his barn had a hot streak. It hasn’t been so great getting back on the dirt, however. So, my top choice is going to be the 9 Maracuja shipping up from Oaklawn Park for the Rob Atras barn. She has faced tougher fields than today’s and is 3-1-1-0 lifetime going nine furlongs on the dirt. (The fifth gray in the field, the 3 Take Charge Lorin, sports an 8-1-0-1 lifetime record. This field is too much for her to handle.)
Free DRF PPs for the Ohio Derby can be found here.
Race 11 G3 Ohio Derby 3YO 5:35 EST The 5 White Abarrio is the lone starter in this field that has won going nine furlongs on the dirt. He was my Kentucky Derby pick and now cuts back and gets Lasix. But… all his wins are at Gulfstream Park. Can’t back him on the ‘A’ line here today. The 7 Tawny Port finished seventh in the Derby and picks up Irad in the irons. There’s speed in this race, but I’m not convinced there’s enough for a closer to come from the back of the pack to take it. I don’t think the outside post helps the case either. But I’d take a crisp break from outside to get into a nice rating position for my top choice, the 8 Classic Causeway. After winning a pair of graded stakes earlier in the year, he’s thrown clunkers out there in both the Florida and Kentucky Derbies. What makes today different? A barn change–he’s now under the care of Kenny McPeek–and he gets one of McPeek’s top riders in Brian Hernandez, Jr. Mike Maker has a pair of entries, the 1 Barese, who goes outside New York for the first time, and the 6 Pineapple Man, who figures to be on the lead from the gate. He’s also off the NYRA circuit for the first time today. I don’t quite know what to make of these, so I’ll use defensively as ‘C’ horses.
Best of luck playing the races!