Welcome to Belmont Stakes day! I’m going to hit all of today’s stakes races, with an emphasis on the mandatory payout pick 5 (races 7-11). This analysis was done pre-scratches.
Race 3 Acorn Stakes 12:33 EST The 5 Echo Zulu cuts back to eight furlongs, where she is so deadly. The 4 Matareya is a threat but I’m going with the chalk here.
Race 4 Just a Game Stakes 1:08 EST Interesting, even with the small field. The 2 Regal Glory should take it, and the morning line reflects that. The 4 In Italian has finished in the exacta in all five career starts. The 1 Leggs Galore is no slouch and figures to jet to the lead. If there’s a longer shot you want to try and get into the exacta, look no further than the 5 Wakanaka. The horse hasn’t won in over a year, but gets Joel Rosario in the irons and will definitely be the price play of the field. Could clunk up for a piece and make the exacta/trifecta worth your while.
Race 5 Brooklyn Stakes 1:45 EST It’s going to be tough to take a stand trying to beat the 1 Lone Rock out of the Diodoro barn, but here we are… The 7 Fearless is the stud that I feel has the best shot to get it done in this field of four-year-old colts. Certainly, could be a single ‘A’ on the card. However, personally, I will be using the 2 Max Player, who is a favorite of mine, and the class in the race. To be honest, I don’t know what’s going on with him. He had no shot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last November, especially reverting to his old off the pace, deep closer running style. His effort in the Alysheba last month left plenty of question marks as well. My best angle on him? He’s been training regularly. No missed works. I’ll be using him on top in all wagers, as Jose Ortiz climbs into the irons for the first time.
Race 6 Woody Stephens Stakes 2:22 EST 1 Jack Christopher. Like Jackie’s Warrior yesterday, it doesn’t need a whole lot of explanation. It won’t hurt my feelings if you try and beat me with the 4 Morello, though.
Race 7 Ogden Phipps Stakes 3:05 EST At one point or another, all five horses in this field have been on my A/B/C grid. Extremely competitive here. I will lean on 1 Letruska, but everyone will be on tickets one way or another. Take the 2 Bonny South for instance. She’s 6-3-2-0 at the surface and distance. And she’s the longshot! Best race of the day in my opinion.
Race 8 Jaipur Stakes 3:53 EST This is where we make our hay in the pick five. Nice field of thirteen. I must have the 8 Scuttlebuzz on the grid, no questions asked. Winner of his last three and can come from off the pace. Needs to not be so far out this time, though. Another horse we have to decide to include or not is the 4 Casa Creed. Breeding tells us that this is his dominion. This is his first start of 2022 here, which gives me pause. His last work was very good, though. The 5 Arrest Me Red is the morning line favorite and three-for-three at the surface/distance. He’s raced with good company for Wesley Ward, and potentially a single ‘A’ here, too.
Race 9 Metropolitan Handicap 4:43 EST The matchup we’ve been waiting for? It’s 1 Flightline vs. 2 Speaker’s Corner going eight furlongs on the dirt. Flightline is a freak, but Speaker’s Corner is no slouch! One of these two are the likely winner. I’ll include the 4 Happy Saver as a ‘C’ in case the pace gets nuclear. I think he can close it out over the others.
Race 10 Manhattan Stakes 5:38 EST Spread! This is a tough-as-nails race to cap. The 5 In Love is a Grade 1 winner and would be a nice score on in the pick 5 at a 15-1 morning line. The 9 Santin seems to fit out of the Brendan Walsh barn with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons, having navigated a win last time out. All the 4 Adhamo has done in thirteen career starts is finish in the money nine times. Lastly, One thing’s for sure–I’m not letting the 10 Channel Maker beat me. This eight-year-old may just show the young boys what’s up. Has the speed figures to take the race, no doubt.
Race 11 Belmont Stakes 6:44 EST Let’s get it out of the way that I believe that the 6 Mo Donegal is the most likely winner of the race. It’s tough to make him a lone ‘A’ on the grid. The odds figure to be too low for a win bet in this spot. Accounting for Friday’s doubles pools, he’s going to be the post time favorite. Anywhere around 5-2 is just too low for me to invest heavily on him here. There’s at least one horse in the field that ran better than him last time out that will be better odds and deserves consideration. We’ll see. I will tell you that I’m against the morning line favorite, too. I like 5 Creative Minister and 3 Nest. Even though 1 We the People look to be the lone speed, going twelve furlongs, I don’t think he’s going to jet out and be clear of the field. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Creative Minister has improved with each start. Nest’s breeding suggests the distance should be no problem either. My main concern is her getting bet down via the “girl vs. the boys” angle.
Overall, a very challenging card, but with the potential to be very profitable. Best of luck!