Horse analysis done post-scratches.
Churchill Downs Race 3 5:58 EST This MSW for 2YO fillies is an interesting field of first timers. The coupled entry of 1 Towhead and 1A Les Bon Temps has a morning line of 7-5 and I’m hoping that it floats up to at least 8-5. I’ll hammer it at 2-1 or better. Towhead gets Gaffalione, and Les Bon Temps gets Geroux, so you’ve got arguably the top two riders at Churchill on our side navigating to the finish line. 5 Mo Bonita (Uncle Mo) out of the Asmussen barn is interesting and the only real threat here. I think 2 Fun Money will take some action, and while I don’t believe she’s a win candidate, perhaps she can clunk up and get in the trifecta.
The play: 1/1A across, $2 exacta 1,1A/5, $1 exacta 5/1,1A,2
Total cost: $10
Churchill Downs Race 5 6:56 EST Another MSW, this time for fillies 3YO and up. A field of seven with three first time starters… And one of them happens to check a bunch of boxes for a price play! The 2 Sha Girl goes for Dale Romans’ barn, and he puts his top jockey, Joe Talamo, in the mount. Sired by Frosted, Sha Girl is–you guessed it–a gray/roan, which just happens to be one of my favorite angles. On a hot day, bet a gray. On a cold day, bet a gray. This Thursday, bet a gray!
The play: 2 across the board
Cleveland +124 at Detroit 7:10 EST The Guardians’ bullpen has the best WHIP in baseball. This game is a coin flip, so I’ll go with the better bullpen and better price.