This post was published prior to scratches.
This weekend marks the inaugural 1/ST Saturday and features fifteen stakes races between Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park (fourteen of which are graded). We’ll be getting stakes action between these two tracks about every fifteen minutes once Santa Anita goes off.
Gulfstream Park
Race 3. The Grade 3 Canadian Turf Stakes features a seven horse field with a heavy favorite, the 2 Never Surprised out of Todd Pletcher’s barn. Hard to argue against as the horse has a lifetime record of 8-4-4-0. The colt is also the class of the race. If I’m trying to beat the favorite here, I’d take a swing with the 4 Mira Mission, who’s shown late kick and has finished in the money seven of nine career starts.
Race 5. This Grade 3 marathon turf race for mares four and older is wide open. My top two choices are both out of the Christophe Clement barn. 8 Beautiful Lover gets jockey Joel Rosario, having won her last, going 12 furlongs at Gulfstream in January. 9 Sorrel gets Jose Ortiz riding for the first time. She finished a game second to her barn mate with a move up the rail in that same race.
Race 6. The Davona Dale, a Kentucky Oaks prep, features what looks to be a solid field of fillies. I’m putting 3 Girl With a Dream on top. She’s the most experienced in the field, having run six times and winning four, including her last three. In order to win this race, she’ll likely have to fend off a late charge from the 2 Classy Edition, a closer that could go off as the post time favorite. Price horses I like are the 1 Kathleen O., who is 2-for-2 lifetime, and 6 Cocktail Moments (2-1-0-1). Both have shown closing kick and are eligible for improvement.
Race 7. Here’s our lone non-graded stakes race of the day, the 8 furlong Palm Beach. Todd Pletcher has entered 6 Royal Spirit here with a little class relief after a second-place finish in the Kitten’s Joy last month. I can’t really make a great case to beat the horse, but the 1 Credibility is intriguing. Won his first start of the year back in January going a mile and seventy yards on the synthetic track. My only concern would be the pace scenario. This colt projects to be towards the back of pack in the early going. The trainer/jockey combo of Mark Casse and Edwin Gonzalez hits at a 28% clip though.
Race 9. This Grade 3 for mares four and up has a field of eleven, and I’m looking all the way to the outside for my pick in the race. 11 Navratilova is making her first start of the year here. She won her last start–the Grade 3 Valley View at Keeneland October 29–and after taking some time off, has been working well over the last month at Palm Meadows. (I’ll admit to some bias here, as I had this horse in the Keeneland contest where I clinched my 2022 NHC seat.)
Race 10. A nice field here in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile. The horse I’m targeting here is the class of the race. 3 Speaker’s Corner won his last January 29, taking the field all the way around the track. Should be forwardly placed and a repeat performance is plausible.
Race 11. The Mac Diarmida is an 11 furlong marathon on the turf. The bettor’s choice is likely to be the 1 Abaan, and the race’s most likely winner. I’ll look elsewhere and take a swing with the 11 Gloucestershire out of Todd Pletcher’s barn. Irad on a horse with a morning line of 8-1? If we get close to that, I’ll be ecstatic.
Race 12. The big one today at Gulfstream, the Fountain of Youth, is an 8.5 furlong dirt race on the road to the Kentucky Derby. The 6 Rattle and Roll would figure to go off as the favorite, sporting a 2-for-2 career record on the surface/distance. He’s making his first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Futurity last October. No doubt he’s been working well, and Kenny McPeek’s barn is in top form. All 8 Emmanuel has done is win his first two career starts, going 8 furlongs and 8.18 furlongs, so stretching out ever so slightly shouldn’t be an issue. Another Todd Pletcher trainee, and the ninja Luis Saez gets the mount. All that being said–and with all the talk around the hype horses–I’m making my pick the 7 A.P.’s Secret. This gray has a career record of 3-2-1-0, went off as the post time favorite in his two wins, and comes in with a morning line of 15-1 in this spot?! Is it a jump up in class? Of course. But who here other than Rattle and Roll isn’t? Let’s get Saffie another winner on the Derby prep trail. Remember, a month ago to the day, Tyler Gaffalione rode White Abarrio to a victory in the Holy Bull at post time odds of 6-1. Okay, so here’s my pace scenario: the 1, 2, and 11 are the early speed in the race. A.P. can sit right off and should be the leader of the second group, so Tyler can get in a fine position to make a move on the turn. Hoping to cash this at double-digit odds.
Race 13. It’s the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes! For 3-year-old fillies going 8 furlongs on the turf. Ample betting choices in this field. 5 Beside Herself has a career record of 3-1-0-2, having added blinkers when breaking her maiden at the end of January, winning by 3.25 lengths. Note that she got out on the lead wearing those blinkers rather than making a deep closing bid that she did in her first two career starts. Irad is in the mount for Todd Pletcher and, given the choices in the race, I’m banking that we’ll get every bit of the 4-1 morning line, and more. Red-hot jockey Luis Saez rides the 8 Opalina. This trainer/jockey combo has hooked up only three times this meet, winning two, including Opalina’s win last month in the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant. I’ll be adding 2 Mischievous Kiss underneath to make a late run and get a piece out of Bill Mott’s barn. Her record sits 4-2-0-2 and has been working well. Goes 8 furlongs for the first time. Junior Alvarado is back on the mount. He was in the irons back in October when she broke her maiden at Belmont.
Santa Anita
Race 4. Do we trust 6 Eight Rings in this spot? He’s run 7 furlongs four times in his career and never hit the board. If I’m trying to beat him, my best chance might be 1 Brickyard Ride. He’s won both of his starts in 2022. He is the speed of the race and has been on the lead in both of those races. He’s 3-1 on the morning line, and I think that will hold.
Race 5. The Buena Vista Stakes, a Grade 2 race going 8 furlongs on the turf, has a larger field than we are used to at the Great Race Place. You could do worse than going with the morning line favorite 10 Going to Vegas. She’s making her first start of the year here though, and there are questions after her performance in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf back in October. I think we can catch a price here and I’m looking at the 2 Tony Ann, the 3 Keeper of Time, and the 11 Mucho Unusual. Tony Ann is a grey and D’Amato/Rispoli are hitting at 20% for the meet. Keeper of Time, out of Ireland, won her last on first time Lasix, but it comes right back off in this spot. Up in the mount for Brendan Walsh is aggressive rider Mike Smith. Those factors together make for quite a wild card play. Mucho Unusual adds blinkers under jockey John Velazquez. My favorite out of the three price horses.
Race 6. In the 8.5 furlong San Felipe we’re back on the dirt trying to beat Bob Baffert. 6 Forbidden Kingdom is our best shot. The absolute speed of the race sporting a career record of 4-2-1-1, this colt should get to the front and take them the whole way. If we get even money that would be great.
Race 9. The Beholder Mile. Dirt. Baffert. A tougher spot to beat as 3 Time Goes By comes in 13-6-3-1. You’ll get a slightly better price on McPeek/Velazquez 6 Envoutante, but this seems like Flavian Prat’s race to lose. Baffert also has the 1 Varda entered, so he can dictate the pace of this small field. No idea why the 4 Founder’s Day is entered. To meet the minimum requirements for a Grade 1 maybe.
Race 10. The Frank E. Kilroe Mile Stakes sports another top field on the turf. First choice on the morning line is 4 Count Again who won his last and has shown the closing kick you like to see. He’s 7 years old though, and I’m looking at a pair of younger horses here. 2 Subconscious, a 4-year-old gelding out of Tapit, brings a record of 8-3-2-1 into today’s race. Should be forwardly placed and will have enough to make a closing bid down the stretch. Another 4-year-old, 6 Law Professor, makes a jump up in class for trainer Mike McCarthy. Lifetime 8-3-1-1 and has shown an ability to make a closing bid from mid-pack in the three victories. Capable rider Abel Cedillo gets back on, having gone twice before.
Race 11. The Santa Anita Handicap is a Grade 1 going 10 furlongs on the dirt for 4-year-olds and up. Setting up for a great battle between 6 Express Train and 8 Stilleto Boy, the latter of which gets John Velazquez on the mount. But there’s not a whole lot of speed in this race, and I’m looking to beat the favorites here. I’m going to take a swing with 5 American Theorem, a 5-year-old that tries the distance for the first time but should be out front and might just take them the whole way under jockey Mike Smith.
NHC Free Qualifier
There’s only 1985 entered at the time of this writing in today’s free qualifier on Horseplayers.com. Fifteen races, and I’m looking at price horses in most of them. I figure if I can catch three or four, I have a shot. My picks, before scratches, are below.
Let’s cash some tickets on this big day of racing!