This weekend’s biggest race is the Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap to be run at Aqueduct, and I will have a pick in that race, no doubt, and perhaps a few others at the track. Then, I will shift my attention to a fine day of racing at Del Mar, culminating in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. First post at Aqueduct is 11:50 a.m. ET.
AQUEDUCT
Race 2. We have a surface change for 6 Midtown Lights out of the Brad Cox barn. This trainer’s ROI going from turf to dirt is $2.11. He also takes blinkers off today, that angle having an ROI of $2.10. This filly should get a favorable trip, projected to sit just off the pace. She has worked regularly since her last race at the end of October. Second choice on the morning line, so a win would not be a huge upset. Also, must deal with four first-time starters in this spot.
Bet: $2 Win-Place on 6 $4 total
Race 5. Making his 2022 debut in this spot is deep closer 3 Bourbonic, a horse that was in good form on the Kentucky Derby trail last year only to sputter during the second half. He has a shot to hit the board as the lightest raced of the bunch here. Unfortunately, I do not think there is enough pace for him to run into and make the winner’s circle. That said, this is not the toughest group, with no one having speed numbers that jump off the page. I will play the odds board and toss him in an exacta or trifecta for certain.
Bet: $2 Place-Show on 3 $4 total
Race 6. Graded stakes begin here with the 9 furlong Demoiselle. 3 Julia Shining closed into a hot pace as a debut winner at 7 furlongs; breeding says she should be fine with the added distance. If you like her on top, then there is really no reason not to also like 5 Affirmative Lady, who projects to be more forwardly placed and will get first run at the leaders. Jockey John Velazquez stays in the irons, which helps the confidence level as well.
Bet: $2 Exacta box 3,5 $4 total
Race 7. Every colt in this race is trying the 9 furlong distance for the first time today. There is a lot to like in 5 Midnight Trouble given the 8-1 morning line. Sporting a career record of 6-2-1-3, he gets jockey Paco Lopez in the saddle, whose aggressive style is not for the faint of heart. Paired up Beyers of 78 could point to a step forward coming in this spot.
Bet: $2 Across on 5 $6 total
Race 8. Stretching out in distance should not be a problem for 7 Dr B, who goes a mile for the first time in her career today. I love that jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets the call here. Watching the odds board closely will inform what my post time bets will be, but straight exactas and doubles are all in play. I will be ecstatic to get the 4-1 morning line or better.
Bet: $1 Exacta key box 7/1,3,8,10 $8 total
Race 9. The Cigar Mile Handicap. This year’s field is not the strongest, but that does not mean it is a group of pushovers either. I am going with the chalk here in 2 Zandon. Many have noted this horse does not have a bad effort in his past performances. He has just run up against some of the absolute best in his age group. I would warn against putting a lot of money on 3 White Abarrio to win, even though he gets Irad on the jockey switch. All his wins have come at Gulfstream Park down in Florida.
Bets: $2 Win on 2; $2 Exacta 2/7 $4 total
DEL MAR
Race 3. Trainer Graham Motion upgrades the mount on 8 Pharoah’s Song to Umberto Rispoli today. She sports a career record of 3-2-0-1 going 8.5 furlongs on turf. She has shown a nice turn of foot in the past and could strike at a price here.
Bet: $2 Across on 8 $6 total
Race 5. The pace scenario looks perfect for 8 Hot Box, who is a candidate to wire the field. Last time out he stretched out to 6.5 furlongs which proved to be too much. This gelding out of Heat Shield is 3-for-4 going 5 furlongs on grass and as noted in his PPs, is a “horse for the course.”
Bet: $2 Across on 8 $6 total
Race 7. The strong turf pedigree of 2 Quickly Park It (and back-to-back wins) factored in today’s entry into the Jimmy Durante Stakes, a Grade 3 going a mile on turf. She projects having to come from far off the pace but has shown the ability to do so in her victories. Will have to beat the Chad Brown entry 11 Ligura who figures to be an underlay.
Bet: $2 Across on 2 $6 total
Race 9. There are two horses I like in this year’s Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. There are two shippers that I suspect will catch the public’s eye and allow for some value on more familiar horses to the California circuit. With blistering works coming into this spot and form that hits the board often, 8 War At Sea is tough to pass up at 6-1 on the morning line. Hopefully that number will float up or stay put rather than getting bet down. 1 Cabo Spirit is no stranger to graded stakes company. Jockey Joe Bravo has ridden his last six starts, four of which have hit the board. He and trainer George Papaprodromou are hitting at a 23% rate over 39 starts in 2021-22 at Del Mar.
Bet: $2 Exacta box 1,8 $4
These bets come to a grand total of $52 for the day. I mentioned above, and I will say again, to pay attention to the odds board and what it is telling you. Be as informed a bettor as you can be! As always, I encourage you to use my analysis and picks in conjunction with your own handicapping to inform your opinions. And most importantly: best of luck playing the races!