11/5/22

CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY AT THE BREEDERS' CUP

Here is the full text I submitted to the Hammer Betting Network today. [AUTHOR LINK] First post is in an hour.

Yesterday’s results. 
Race 3. 50 cent Pick 3 11/2,8-12/1,2,4,9,10 RESULT: 11/2/2 **PAID $143.16** 
Race 5. $2 Across the board on 9 RESULT: 2-4-6-1 
Race 6. $1 Exacta key box 2/3,5-7,10,11 RESULT: 5-4-3-6 
Race 7. $1 Exacta box 5,8,9 RESULT: 5-13-14-2 
Race 8. $1 Exacta key box 5/4,9-11 RESULT: 10-5-2-12 **PAID $25.55** 
Race 9. 50 cent Trifecta 3,10/3-6,10/3-6,8,10 RESULT: 4-3-10-6 
Race 10. $1 Exacta box 2,4,13 RESULT: 1-4-9-12 
All said, that is a return of $168.71 on $69 worth in bets. Now, on to Championship Saturday! 

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The first post today in Lexington is at 10:30 a.m. ET. Breeders’ Cup races start at 11:50 a.m. ET. 

Race 1. Trainer Bob Baffert debuts 4 Arabian Knight here and puts jockey John Velazquez in the irons. This horse does not deserve the short price that you will get at post time. More interesting are 12 Reagan and 13 Determinedly. Both get new jockeys and have race experience. I think the exotics could blow up here and get Saturday started with a bang. 
Bet: 50 cent Trifecta 12,13/4,6,12,13/2,4,6,8,10,12,13 $15 total 

Race 3. There is a lot of early speed lined up here to kick off the Breeders’ Cup races. For that reason, I will look to horses coming off the pace. My top choice, 8 Goodnight Olive, projects to get first crack at the leaders. Continuing the theme for this year’s Breeders’ Cup picks, jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. is in the irons for trainer Chad Brown. The pace scenario I see is 1 Slammed, 2 Edgeway, and 13 Echo Zulu to hook up early and through the backstretch, leaving Irad and Goodnight Olive to pick up the pieces down the stretch. Her lifetime record of 6-5-1-0 is impressive, and she has faced–and beaten–horses at this level. I will also toss in the Japanese import 6 Chain of Love, who gets jockey Bill Buick today. 
Bets: $2 Double 6/8; $4 Double 8/8 $6 total 

Race 4. If you are trying to beat the morning line favorite 8 Golden Pal here, good for you. I will do no such thing. I am going to play a cold exacta with 7 Arrest Me Red who, like Golden Pal, is undefeated at today’s surface and distance. 
Bets: $2 Exacta 8/7, 50 cent Trifecta 8/7/1-6,9-16 $9 total 

Race 5. I can make a case for at least seven in this field. Instead of overcomplicating things, I will lean heavily on the offspring of Gun Runner, with my top play a 5 Gunite and 9 Cyberknife exacta box.  
Bets: $2 Exacta box 5,9; 50 cent Trifecta 5,9/1-3,5,7,9,10/2,7,10 $19 total 

Race 6. Jockey Hollie Doyle has been in the saddle for every one of 3 Nashwa’s career races, having finished in the money in each. I am not interested in betting her anywhere near the morning line price of 5-2. My top play here instead will be 10 Virginia Joy. The jockey? You guessed it–Irad Ortiz, Jr. I like the post position and she has a handful of sharp works leading into this spot. 
Bet: $2 Across on 10 $6 total 

Race 7. I am still getting familiar with West Coast trainer George Papaprodromou, but from what I can discern, he does not ship horses East unless he believes they have a chance at the winner’s circle. For that reason, I am picking 4 American Theorem to finish second behind heavy favorite 9 Jackie’s Warrior. My top play will be an exacta with those two. If memory serves, this is to be Jackie’s Warrior’s final race before being sent to the breeding shed. I expect trainer Steve Asmussen will make sure he is tuned up and ready to fire today and get a Breeders’ Cup win. 
Bet: $2 Exacta 9/4 $2 total 

Race 8. A mile on the turf and a heavy favorite in 4 Modern Games. This is the horse’s favorite distance, having finished in the exacta his last three out under jockey Bill Buick. I will lean on Irad here, though, and put 11 Annapolis on top. Sporting a lifetime record of 7-5-2-0, and with Irad in the mount each one, this jockey-horse combination has the making of something special. I am going to toss in Irad’s brother, Jose Ortiz, and his mount 8 Regal Glory, to comprise an exacta box. 
Bet: $1 Exacta box 4,8,11 $6 total 

Race 9. This may not be the largest field in this year’s Breeders’ Cup, but I believe it to be the most competitive. A legitimate case can be made for each entrant. I am going to take the only horse in the field that has tried 9 furlongs and not hit the board in her career. That would be the Steve Asmussen-trained 8 Society. She is 5-for-6 lifetime, with that loss at 9 furlongs coming under a different jockey than today’s rider Florent Geroux.  
Bets: $2 Win on 8, $1 Exacta 8/ALL $9 total 

Race 10. How much do we trust jockey Feargal Lynch on 1 Bye Bye Melvin? The pace projection has this horse out to an easy lead and, honestly, from that post position he must send. With not a whole lot of other speed in the race, the question then becomes if he can settle and take the field 12 furlongs gate-to-wire. Last month he got Place money getting passed in the stretch. I think he will take it today at a price. 
Bet: $2 Win-Place on 1 $4 total 

Race 11. I am much more excited to watch this race as a fan than place a bet. I really want 4 Flightline to destroy the field. But this is by far the toughest test of his career. He is going to have to look 2 Life Is Good in the eye. They will most certainly hook up early, and where that goes, I do not know. What I do know is that, in Flightline’s career, only one horse has finished second to him by single-digit lengths. That horse is 3 Happy Saver, who retains jockey John Velazquez in the mount for today’s $6 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic. I am predicting chaos at 10 furlongs today and a big-time upset. 
Bet: $2 Win on 3 $2 total 

That makes a total of $96 to play Championship Saturday of the Breeders’ Cup. As always, I encourage you to use my analysis and picks in conjunction with your own handicapping to inform your opinions. And most importantly: best of luck playing the races!