Today’s analysis and picks done pre-scratches.
Gulfstream Park • Race 6 • 2:38 p.m. ET [PPs] A dozen are entered in this AOC going 7.5 furlongs on turf. Potentially nice race to bet assuming the field holds. Several get first time Lasix, including 5 Mohawk Trail. The projected pacesetter won doing just that last time out. This is quite a step up for the Kelsey Danner trainee, but your favorite Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Sonny Leon is again in the irons today. 3 Scottish Symphony sits as the morning line favorite on the odds board at 4-1, but ThoroPACE [free account], today’s pace setup trends negative. I’m intrigued by 6 Pallotta Sisters, who picks up jockey Jose Ortiz today. This gray out of Graham Motion’s barn had her only win with Lasix, which she gets for a second time today. 8 Isabel Alexandra has faced the toughest competition of all the fillies in this race. She hasn’t won since debut but fired a 3/186 bullet work on New Year’s Eve here at Gulfstream. The more I look at this race–again, assuming few to no scratches–the more it feels like a “watch the tote” type of race. See which horses are taking money and play accordingly.
Pick: 6-8-5-1
NAIL 🔨 pick: Fair Grounds • Race 4 • 3:45 p.m. ET Trainer Bret Calhoun has a pair entered here–the top two on the morning line, in fact. I like the higher priced of the two, 4 Wupkar, even with the thought that she may go off as the post time favorite. She projects to sit right off the pace with her stablemate. She’s been in the exacta in five of six career starts.
2023 NAIL record: 4-1-3-0
Best of luck!