Keeneland • Race 8 • Allowance NW1 • Fillies & Mares 3YO+ • 4:44 EST Can’t imagine that 1 Shannon is going to go off anywhere near the 3-1 morning line. I see Brad Cox and Florent Geroux and I see money coming in. I also see, via pace projection numbers, more than a few early speed horses here, including some that will want to gun it from the outside. For that reason, I’m looking for off-the-pace types. 4 Aboukir Bay is exactly what the doctor ordered for this spot. She’s run 5.5 furlongs on grass five times, finishing second in four of those outings. Why not win one with a late closing bid here? I can see it happening. To complete the exacta, I’ll go with 11 Top Gun Girl for trainer Wesley Ward. Jockey John Velazquez is back in the irons. He rode her twice in 2021, finishing second on debut and breaking her maiden second out. A factor here for sure–and one that may be an overlay at 4-1 or better.
Picks: 4-11—7-1
Best of luck!